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SANTA ANA (CNS) - Orange County voters will head to the polls Tuesday to cast ballots for candidates for three of the five county supervisors, District Attorney, state lawmakers, judges and congressional representatives.
The primary election will narrow down races to the top two vote- getters unless one candidate can avoid a runoff by getting more than 50%.
Traditionally, mid-term elections are difficult for the party with the White House, and it can be especially tough when the economy has issues such as inflation, UC Irvine political science professor Louis DeSipio said. But an expected Supreme Court ruling that may overturn abortion precedent and the mass shooting in a Texas elementary school have the potential to shake up the traditional narrative, DeSipio said.
"Orange County is the perfect place to think about these things because it's purple at this point and can go either way," DeSipio said. "The redistricting didn't narrow that in any way -- on the national level at least."
The 40th Congressional District will be an interesting race to watch, DeSipio said. Incumbent Young Kim is running against Republican Mission Viejo City Councilman Greg Raths and Republican Nick Taurus as well as physician Asif Mahmood, a Democrat.
It's possible Kim and Raths could end up running against each other in November, DeSipio said. Kim has been blitzing Raths with TV ads accusing him of being liberal, which Raths has brushed off, saying, "Looks like I'm hitting a nerve."
Raths has some name recognition in south county after running against Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, two years ago.
DeSipio thinks the 45th Congressional District is also up for grabs as well as the 47th Congressional District.
"Because the final lines came down a little late and the campaigns weren't even sure where they were running it's been a little slow to get started, but I think the national parties will be investing a lot here," DeSipio said.
In the 45th district incumbent Republican Michelle Steel is running against Republican Long Pham and Democrat Jay Chen, who previously planned to run against Kim, but changed course following the redrawing of congressional lines.
"I think (Steel's) safer than Katie Porter, but either could be defeated," DeSipio said.
Porter is now in the new "coastal seat," running against Republicans Scott Baugh, the former Orange County GOP chairman, Amy Phan West, Brian Burley and Errol Webber. Baugh and Porter are expected to face off in November.
Rep. Mike Levin, D-Dana Point, is running against Democrat Nadia Bahia Smalley and Republicans Oceanside City Councilman Christopher Rodriguez, Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett, sheriff's Deputy Josiah O'Neil, Renee Taylor, and Brian Maryott.
Another race of interest will be District Attorney Todd Spitzer's first bid for re-election. Spitzer is being challenged by Democratic-endorsed candidate Pete Hardin, a former federal and state prosecutor, as well as Bryan Chehock, an attorney for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, and former Orange County prosecutor Michael Jacobs.
It's been an especially hard-hitting race as Hardin has harped on sexual and racial harassment lawsuits filed against the county involving ex- prosecutor Gary LoGalbo, who was best man at Spitzer's wedding. Spitzer lost endorsements from other top prosecutors in the state when it was disclosed Spitzer said some Black men date white women to elevate their status during meetings to discuss whether to purse the death penalty against a Black defendant. An Orange County Superior Court judge on Friday found Spitzer violated the Racial Justice Act in that case.
Civil rights leaders also condemned Spitzer for repeating a racial slur for Blacks in a gathering of Orange County attorneys as the prosecutor touted his office's work cracking down on hate crimes.
Spitzer has criticized Hardin, a former Marine, for getting into trouble in the military for infidelity and for allegedly harassing a domestic violence victim for a date when he was a state prosecutor.
Chehock, a San Clemente native, said he has purposefully not raised any money for his campaign, which is more or less one of protest as he does not expect to win, but wanted to raise the issue that politics should be removed from the office.
Voters will also narrow down choices for three of the five Orange County board of supervisor seats.
Santa Ana Mayor Vicente Sarmiento, Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Bernice Nguyen, Orange City Councilman Jon Dumitru, sheriff's deputy Juan Villegas and former Santa Ana City Councilwoman Cecilia Iglesias are running for the Second District supervisor post.
Orange County Board Chairman Doug Chaffee, a Democrat, is receiving a surprise challenge from Democratic Party-endorsed candidate Sunny Park, the mayor of Buena Park, and Brea City Councilman Steven Vargas, a Republican.
In the Fifth Supervisor District there's another surprising intra- party challenge as former Supervisor Pat Bates, who was termed out as state senator, is running against the Republican Party-endorsed Diane Harkey. Republican Newport Beach Mayor Kevin Muldoon is also in the race against Democratic Supervisor Katrina Foley, who is running for a full term after filling out the term of Steel after she was elected to Congress.
The heads of both Democrat and Republican parties in Orange County feel some optimism going into the primary.
"I'm very optimistic," said Fred Whitaker, the chair of the GOP in Orange County. "I think the passion is on the side of Republican voters. With everything going wrong with the country and the state right now the gap between Democratic votes and Republican votes is much less than what it was in the March 2020 primary and our turnout models right now are showing we're going to do well tomorrow."
Whitaker said there has been some "confusion" among voters due to the redistricting.
"There's confusion about why certain candidates are on their ballot and others are not, and they didn't realize their district had changed," he said. "But that happens every 10 years."
Whitaker believes turnout will be relatively low.
"Right now it's only 18% total turnout," he said. "The models expect 32% turnout. It's low. It's a mid-term without a significant battle at the top of the ticket, and it's a primary in June."
Ada Briceno, the chair of the Orange County Democratic Party, said turnout appears to be about 15% in the county.
"I would say maybe we would double that for tomorrow," Briceno said of Election Day. "We're finding some people are holding on to their ballots so we're doing a whole bunch of phone calls and door knocking."
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Democrats have favored voting by mail, but Briceno said as the virus becomes more endemic that pattern is evolving.
"I think we'll see a lot more Democrats go to voting centers," she said.
Briceno said she her party's volunteers are fielding a lot of questions from voters on where candidates stand on abortion and gun control.
Whitaker said he does not think those issues will play a major factor in the election results.
"I don't believe either of those issues will be significant wild cards," he said. "People vote with their pocket books. They always have. Nothing will change between now and November to stop inflation or to get people back to working in the work force. All those things that are affecting people's daily lives like crime and homelessness -- those were solvable and long-term issues that won't get fixed between now and November."