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LOS ANGELES (CNS) - Forecasters Tuesday were closely monitoring a developing tropical system off the Baja California coast that could become a hurricane and potentially bring high surf, coastal flooding, rain and strong winds to Southern California over the holiday weekend.
"All eyes remain focused on the Labor Day holiday weekend period," according to the National Weather Service. "A hurricane is likely to develop by Wednesday or Thursday from the clump of clouds currently just off the Baja coast."
Once formed, the storm will likely move northwest through Saturday toward Southern California, but forecasters said there remains considerable uncertainty over its path after that.
Some forecast models show the storm continuing north and moving through Southern California by Labor Day or Tuesday, potentially producing significant rain and wind. Other projections have the system turning west and remaining well offshore, with little or no impact on the region.
The NWS said projections indicate the heavy-rain scenario is the least likely, with only 5% to 10% showing 2 inches or more of rain. About 20% to 30% of projections show a completely dry scenario, making some light rain during the holiday weekend the most likely outcome.
There is also a low but possible chance of strong easterly winds that could increase fire danger and bring down trees, according to the NWS.
"With all that said, this is definitely a period to monitor with a range of outcomes on the table," the NWS said.
Forecasters expressed greater confidence that the coast will see significant impacts. A south swell is expected to build through Tuesday unless the developing storm turns sharply west after Saturday, while swells from Hurricane Karina are also expected to remain in the area.
Evening high tides are forecast to approach 7 feet by Monday, and the most likely scenario would bring high surf during the busy holiday weekend and moderate coastal flooding along south-facing beaches, according to the NWS. Those impacts could be greater if the storm tracks closer to the coast.
"Due to the rarity of this storm, expecting there to be a lot of uncertainty even as we get to the weekend, but hopefully some details will come more into focus by mid-week once the storm actually forms," the NWS said.
In the meantime, relatively quiet weather is expected across Los Angeles and Orange counties through Friday, with below-normal temperatures and coastal clouds.
Despite the below-normal readings, forecasters said temperatures will remain warm, though not as hot as last week. Tropical moisture is expected to remain away from the region through the workweek, reducing the muggy conditions experienced last week, although warm ocean temperatures will keep humidity somewhat elevated.
A marine layer of more than 2,000 feet is expected to persist through the week and deepen Tuesday, with some areas potentially seeing morning drizzle.
Little change is expected Friday before attention shifts to the developing tropical system and its potential impacts over the holiday weekend.