Two California professors who are studying confirmed coronavirus cases in Orange County are now awaiting crucial data in the coming days to better determine if they are on the same path as Italy in their projection.
Dominik Wodarz studies dynamics of infectious diseases, and Natalia Komarova is a math professor, both at UC Irvine. Their data analysis currently shows a trend that puts Orange County about 20 days behind when Italy's healthcare and and hospitals became overwhelmed with coronavirus cases.
Komarova and Wodarz also noted that their analysis is based on reported cases, not deaths in Orange County.
“We will have to see what happens in the coming days. So far, O.C. has tracked Italy’s per capita COVID-19 case counts with remarkable accuracy,” Wodarz said.
As they await more data in the next few days, Komarova and Wodarz say they both just hope that their analysis helps people take the pandemic seriously moving forward.
“If Orange County does not diverge from Italy as we go along, that means we have to do more social distancing,” Wodarz added.
Read the full report on The Orange County Register.