Population Pains: California's Long Road to Recovery After the Pandemic

California is witnessing a cautious return to population growth after years of decline, a trend that began in 2019 and accelerated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite a slight increase of 0.17% in 2023, the state remains 1.2% below its 2019 population levels. Experts predict it could take nearly eight years for California to fully recover its population if the current slow growth rates persist. The decline was initially driven by reduced international migration due to pandemic restrictions, high COVID-19 mortality rates, and an exodus driven by soaring housing costs.

Housing remains a significant barrier, with prices still not showing signs of decline, and the high cost of living continues to drive residents to more affordable states. However, some recovery signs are evident, particularly in major cities like San Francisco, which are beginning to see population increases as remote work policies are scaled back. Yet, experts like Sarah Karlinsky from UC Berkeley’s Terner Center for Housing Innovation highlight ongoing challenges such as the need for more affordable housing options to alleviate homelessness and overcrowding.

The Public Policy Institute of California suggests that improving housing affordability is crucial to retaining residents and preventing further outmigration. With an aging population and a potentially shrinking workforce, California faces several long-term challenges that could impact various sectors, including healthcare.

Governor Gavin Newsom recently declared the state's exodus over, citing the 2023 population growth as a positive sign. Still, experts caution that the growth is minimal and not sufficient to reverse the longstanding trends exacerbated by the pandemic. The state’s demographic shifts highlight a broader urban-rural divide, with rural counties experiencing growth while some urban areas struggle to rebound.